{ "schemaVersion": 2, "sourceHashes": { "US_births_1994-2003_CDC_NCHS.csv": "2d0d0c2734468e22a7195f30bfee99885da2322ccf538dbad5d2125d4a06c011", "US_births_2000-2014_SSA.csv": "67ed396cecc999664a737ee75f287cf3472e24c3257fcca795b672579f0ed910" }, "baseline": { "startYear": 1994, "endYear": 2014, "births": 85712738, "days": 7670 }, "annualWindow": { "startYear": 2000, "endYear": 2014, "years": 15, "controls": "Mean of available dates 7 and 14 days before and after the target, within the same calendar year. November 13 uses 7 days either side to avoid Thanksgiving/Black Friday among 14-day controls. Separate 7-day and 14-day sensitivities are retained.", "aggregation": "Sum of target births divided by sum of each year's control mean. No causal adjustment." }, "newCohortControls": "For the 12 October 2 dates, remove actual and standard Monday–Friday observed federal holidays, Christmas Eve, December 26 and the Friday after Thanksgiving. Keep controls within the target calendar year and retain every excluded date/reason. The original 12 dates retain their original controls. Holiday labels describe calendar rules, not hospital schedules. Juneteenth was not a federal holiday during 2000–2014.", "calendarSources": [ "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/federal-holidays/", "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/pay-administration/fact-sheets/holidays-work-schedules-and-pay/" ], "dates": [ { "id": "february3", "slug": "february-3", "route": "/birthdays/february/3/", "month": 2, "day": 3, "baseline": { "key": "02-03", "label": "February 3", "births": 228433, "rank": 295, "share": 0.0026650997894851988, "monthRank": 23, "oneIn": 375.2204716481419, "occurrences": 21, "average": 10877.761904761905 }, "years": [ { "year": 2000, "date": "2000-02-03", "weekday": "Thursday", "births": 12062, "controlBirths": 12511.5, "ratio": 0.9640730527914319, "percentDifference": -3.592694720856815, "controlDates": [ "2000-01-20", "2000-01-27", "2000-02-10", "2000-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": true, "observedHoliday": false }, 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"2003-01-27", "2003-02-10", "2003-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2004, "date": "2004-02-03", "weekday": "Tuesday", "births": 13211, "controlBirths": 12907.75, "ratio": 1.0234936375433363, "percentDifference": 2.349363754333633, "controlDates": [ "2004-01-20", "2004-01-27", "2004-02-10", "2004-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": true, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2005, "date": "2005-02-03", "weekday": "Thursday", "births": 12638, "controlBirths": 12777.5, "ratio": 0.989082371355899, "percentDifference": -1.0917628644100952, "controlDates": [ "2005-01-20", "2005-01-27", "2005-02-10", "2005-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2006, "date": "2006-02-03", "weekday": "Friday", "births": 13089, "controlBirths": 13118.25, "ratio": 0.9977702818592419, "percentDifference": -0.2229718140758119, "controlDates": [ "2006-01-20", "2006-01-27", "2006-02-10", "2006-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2007, "date": "2007-02-03", "weekday": "Saturday", "births": 8821, "controlBirths": 8726.25, "ratio": 1.0108580432602778, "percentDifference": 1.0858043260277839, "controlDates": [ "2007-01-20", "2007-01-27", "2007-02-10", "2007-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2008, "date": "2008-02-03", "weekday": "Sunday", "births": 7616, "controlBirths": 7601.75, "ratio": 1.0018745683559707, "percentDifference": 0.18745683559706627, "controlDates": [ "2008-01-20", "2008-01-27", "2008-02-10", "2008-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": true, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2009, "date": "2009-02-03", "weekday": "Tuesday", "births": 13330, "controlBirths": 13201.25, "ratio": 1.0097528643120917, "percentDifference": 0.9752864312091658, "controlDates": [ "2009-01-20", "2009-01-27", "2009-02-10", "2009-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2010, "date": "2010-02-03", "weekday": "Wednesday", "births": 12453, "controlBirths": 12556.0, "ratio": 0.9917967505575024, "percentDifference": -0.8203249442497618, "controlDates": [ "2010-01-20", "2010-01-27", "2010-02-10", "2010-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2011, "date": "2011-02-03", "weekday": "Thursday", "births": 11917, "controlBirths": 12221.25, "ratio": 0.9751048378848317, "percentDifference": -2.489516211516829, "controlDates": [ "2011-01-20", "2011-01-27", "2011-02-10", "2011-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2012, "date": "2012-02-03", "weekday": "Friday", "births": 11826, "controlBirths": 11882.0, "ratio": 0.9952869887224373, "percentDifference": -0.471301127756274, "controlDates": [ "2012-01-20", "2012-01-27", "2012-02-10", "2012-02-17" ], "excludedControls": [], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": true, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2013, "date": "2013-02-03", "weekday": "Sunday", "births": 6876, "controlBirths": 6924.0, "ratio": 0.9930675909878682, "percentDifference": -0.6932409012131768, "controlDates": [ "2013-01-20", "2013-01-27", "2013-02-10", "2013-02-17" ], 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"reason": "Outside target calendar year" } ], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2003, "date": "2003-12-31", "weekday": "Wednesday", "births": 12540, "controlBirths": 11363.0, "ratio": 1.1035818005808324, "percentDifference": 10.358180058083244, "controlDates": [ "2003-12-17", "2003-12-24" ], "excludedControls": [ { "date": "2004-01-07", "reason": "Outside target calendar year" }, { "date": "2004-01-14", "reason": "Outside target calendar year" } ], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false }, { "year": 2004, "date": "2004-12-31", "weekday": "Friday", "births": 10130, "controlBirths": 10451.5, "ratio": 0.9692388652346553, "percentDifference": -3.07611347653447, "controlDates": [ "2004-12-17", "2004-12-24" ], "excludedControls": [ { "date": "2005-01-07", "reason": "Outside target calendar year" }, { "date": 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"date": "2015-01-14", "reason": "Outside target calendar year" } ], "thanksgiving": false, "dayAfterThanksgiving": false, "friday13": false, "leapYear": false, "observedHoliday": false } ], "controls": { "years": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 ], "occurrences": 15, "targetBirths": 158230, "controlDates": 30, "targetAverage": 10548.666666666666, "controlAverage": 9891.766666666666, "percentDifference": 6.640876419109487, "offsets": [ -14, -7, 7, 14 ], "holidayAware": false, "description": "Available same-year, same-weekday dates 7 and 14 days before or after the target.", "belowYears": 2, "aboveYears": 13, "sensitivity": [ { "distance": 7, "occurrences": 15, "years": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 ], "omitted": [], "percentDifference": 31.293770121809562 }, { "distance": 14, "occurrences": 15, "years": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 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